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Canada could face a sharp rise in undocumented residents by mid-2026 as large numbers of work permits expire under tighter immigration rules. Indians are expected to account for nearly half of those at risk, according to immigration data.
Figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada show that more than 1.05 million work permits expired by the end of 2025, with another 927,000 set to expire in 2026. The changes come amid stricter immigration caps introduced by the government led by Mark Carney.
Immigration consultants warn that expiring permits, combined with fewer pathways to permanent residency, could push many temporary workers out of legal status. Estimates suggest that by mid-2026, Canada may have up to two million undocumented residents, with Indians forming a significant share.
The Canadian government has reduced intake targets for temporary workers, international students, refugees, and permanent residents, citing pressure on housing, healthcare, and public services. Authorities say the goal is to better align immigration with labour needs and ease infrastructure strain.
Temporary residents whose permits expire have 90 days to apply for restoration, but they cannot work during processing, and approvals may take months. With expiry numbers rising, advocacy groups warn of growing uncertainty for migrant workers.
January 8, 2026
