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Canada is heading toward a major immigration crossroads in 2026, with millions of temporary residents facing expired or expiring permits and no guaranteed path to permanent residency (PR).
According to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), around 2.1 million temporary residents will be left with expired or expiring legal status this year, raising serious questions about whether they will leave the country or remain without authorization.
Millions of Permits Near Expiry
IRCC figures show that:
- 1.49 million temporary permits expired in 2025
- Another 1.4 million permits are set to expire in 2026
- Over 55% of 2026 expiries will occur by June
These numbers exclude study permit extensions, meaning the actual population affected could be even higher.
At the same time, Canada is offering far fewer permanent residency spots. IRCC allocated 395,000 PR admissions in 2025 and 380,000 in 2026, leaving a significant gap between those eligible for PR and those losing temporary status.
False Assumption That Everyone Will Leave
Immigration experts warn that the federal government may be relying on an unrealistic assumption—that people with expiring permits will simply return home.
Toronto-based immigration lawyer Lou Janssen Dangzalan says this ignores the reality many migrants face.
For years, Canada was promoted globally as a country where permanent residency was attainable. Many newcomers sold property, borrowed heavily, or invested life savings to come to Canada. Now, with tightened rules, many may be forced into undocumented status rather than leave.
“From an administrative perspective, removing or monitoring millions of people is nearly impossible,” Dangzalan warned, calling the situation “a very painful process.”
Real Lives in Limbo
One such case is that of a young mechanical engineering graduate who arrived in Ontario as an international student, later securing work in the automotive sector. After multiple layoffs linked to economic pressures, his provincial nomination for PR collapsed because it depended on continuous employment.
With his work permit expiring in March, long-term plans—home ownership, entrepreneurship, and settlement—are now on hold.
Stories like his are becoming increasingly common across Ontario and other provinces.
Risk of Undocumented Migration Rising
IRCC estimates suggest there may already be 200,000 to 500,000 undocumented migrants in Canada. With permits expiring faster than PR approvals, consultants and lawyers fear this number could rise sharply.
Immigration consultant Earnest Immigration, based in Windsor, reports that the majority of consultations now involve desperate attempts to extend status or salvage PR eligibility.
“The math isn’t mathing,” she said, pointing out that demand for PR far exceeds available spots.
Enforcement Is Already Increasing
According to Canada Border Services Agency, Canada deported over 18,000 people in 2024–25, nearly 400 per week, marking the fastest removal pace in a decade. Most removals involved failed asylum claims, but experts say enforcement pressure is likely to expand.
Government’s Long-Term Plan
Under Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, the federal government aims to:
- Keep PR admissions below 1% of the population after 2027
- Reduce temporary residents to under 5% of the population by the end of 2027
IRCC says these measures are meant to restore balance and sustainability while maintaining humanitarian commitments.
A System Under Strain
As permits expire and PR competition intensifies, both migrants and policymakers face difficult choices. Experts warn that without policy recalibration—such as prioritizing inland applicants—Canada may see growing undocumented populations, enforcement backlogs, and human hardship.
For now, millions of temporary residents remain in legal and emotional limbo, unsure whether Canada will remain home—or force a return they never planned for.
January 14, 2026
